All posts by: Dinah Winnick

“Presuming he avoids over-reaching on assault weapons or immigration reform — or unless the president makes a major push on climate change, as he hinted in his inaugural address Monday — Mr. Obama’s second-term success or failure will be largely defined by how he handles these fiscal battles with Capitol Hill Republicans,” writes political science professor Thomas Schaller in his latest Baltimore Sun column.

And what can we expect those fiscal battles look like? Schaller suggests, “no matter how ugly the squabbling gets on Capitol Hill during the next two years, there’s almost no incentive for Republicans…to work with Mr. Obama during his second term.” But aside from “fiscal fighting interrupted by the occasional international episode,” Schaller anticipates the U.S. will see a “no drama Obama” in the next four years and a fairly uneventful second term.

Laura Hussey, assistant professor of political science, participated in a lively conversation on the Marc Steiner Show discussing the 2013 Maryland legislative session, in which lawmakers will grapple with topics like gun control and the death penalty. Joining her on the program were Cory McCray, co-founder of the BEST Democratic Club; Jon Cardin, Delegate for Maryland’s 11th District in Baltimore County; and E.J. Pipkin, Minority Leader in the Maryland State Senate.

Hussey initially focused on the question of whether we have too many people in prison, responding,  “I think that the answer has got to be ‘yes.’ If you look at the U.S. relative to the rest of the world, we are a tremendous outlier in terms of our rate of incarcerating people.” She also detailed how having a prison record has serious implications for individual people’s lives as well as continuing the larger cycle of poverty.

Additional topics Hussey covered in the radio segment include perceptions of environmental policy relating to the Chesapeake Bay and public views on raising transportation funds through increasing the gas tax.

On Wednesday, Governor Martin O’Malley is expected to deliver his budget proposal for the coming year to the Maryland legislature. Last year the General Assembly garnered a lot of unwanted attention for failing to pass a budget before time ran out in the regular legislative session. WYPR’s Sheilah Kast interviewed UMBC political science professor Roy T. Meyers on Maryland Morning to learn if there might be any surprises in store for this year.

“The state has made some very tough choices over the past couple years in reducing spending,” says Meyers. Listen to the full interview to learn about the relationship between federal and state budget cuts and what Meyers anticipates in the coming year for the Transportation Trust Fund and a possible gas tax.

A new post by UMBC political science professor Thomas F. Schaller on Sabato’s Crystal Ball discusses the concept of election “drop-off” and why he expects it to benefit the Republican Party in the 2014 election.

Schaller explains, “‘Drop-off’ is the political science term for the decline in turnout between the high-water benchmark of presidential elections and other electoral moments” such as “midterm elections for both chambers of Congress” and “state and local elections…held in non-presidential years.” Between 1964 and 2010, the average drop-off effect was 14%, with election turnouts ranging from 54.2% to 69.3% in presidential cycles and from 41.8% to 55.4% in midterm cycles.

What effect does this have? Schaller writes, “It’s no mystery why Democrats generally perform better in presidential years while Republicans tend to excel in midterm cycles: Lower midterm turnouts tend to skew the electorate toward older, white and/or more affluent voters.” He concludes, “Democrats will need to employ new strategies to compel voters who disappear when the presidency isn’t on the ballot to show up.”

For discussion on this topic, see also Charlie Mahtesian’s Politico blog, which excerpted and linked to the piece.

Thomas F. Schaller, professor of political science, writes in his latest Baltimore Sun column, “As Washington politicians search for budget solutions, imagine if there were a magical revenue source that operated not unlike a national consumption tax that many conservatives prefer and would mitigate global warming to please liberals, all while helping repair America’s infrastructure and strengthening our national security, to the delight of almost everyone. Actually, such a tax already exists: It’s called the federal gasoline tax, and it’s been stuck at 18.4 cents per gallon for two decades. We’re long overdue to increase it — maybe even double or triple it.”

How does the gas tax work and what is Schaller’s argument for increasing it? Read his commentary to learn more.

Rather than voting for or against a debt ceiling increase, lawmakers should vote to eliminate the debt ceiling entirely, suggest UMBC political science professor Roy T. Meyers and colleague Philip G. Joyce in a recent Baltimore Sun op-ed.

The scholars call the debt ceiling “an anachronism that causes more harm than good” and “a distraction from any reasonable debate on taxes and spending.” They suggest Congress should vote to repeal it, set reasonable targets for debt reduction over a multiyear period, and then use performance data to identify which government programs do and don’t work. Such data could inform arguments for cutting, sustaining or boosting spending for different programs.