U.S. voters frustrated by competing claims of who will win the upcoming presidential election and why can turn to political science professor Thomas F. Schaller’s latest Salon column—“Why Obama/Romney will win/lose”—for insight on election theories.
Schaller’s top theories for why Obama will win include: (1) He’s got a huge field advantage in the swing states. (2) No matter what Romney does, it all comes down to one state, Ohio—and Obama has it locked. (3) The Latino vote is being undercounted. (4) Cell phone users are being undercounted. (5) The 2012 electorate will look similar to 2008. (6) Nate Silver is a genius, and he pegs Obama as a 3-to-1 favorite.
Major theories for why Romney will win include: (1) He’s locked down the independents. (2) Actually he, not Obama, has the turnout advantage. (3) And that’s because Obama’s ground game “edge” is mythical—and besides, a secret Mormon army is quietly mobilizing out West. (4) The youth vote won’t be there for Obama this time. (5) The liberally-biased polls are skewed. (6) Nate Silver’s all wrong.
See also Schaller’s latest Baltimore Sun column, “The virtues of a president with humble origins,” which argues, “The president’s humble beginnings will allow him to continue working on behalf of working-class Americans.”
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