Thomas Schaller, Political Science, in the Baltimore Sun and Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Published: Aug 11, 2011

In a new column on the popular U.S. politics blog Sabato’s Crystal Ball, UMBC professor Thomas Schaller considers the electoral chances of 2012 presidential hopefuls from the U.S. House of Representatives, given that the last incumbent House member to win the presidency was James Garfield in 1880. In “From the House to the White House? Not So Fast,” Schaller examines past election data and finds, “Despite some significant and even historic House presidential candidates, there is no modern precedent for the Bachmann-Gingrich-McCotter-Paul quartet running in the same cycle for the same party’s presidential nomination.” In the end, he argues, “none of the House Republican candidates is likely to be the 2012 nominee,” but their impact on the Republic presidential contest might still be quite significant. Schaller’s latest Baltimore Sun column also appeared this week, titled “In Majesty of National Parks, an Argument for Collective Action.”


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